India's Retail Inflation Falls To 18-Month Low Of 4.7% In April

India's consumer price index (CPI) inflation for the month of April eased to 4.7% with in the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit of 6%, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO). The retail inflation declined to an 18-month low in April as a result of the cooling food prices, as per government data.

It was for the second month in a row that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation remained within the RBI's comfort zone of below 6%, according to PTI.
The retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was declared at 5.66% in March 2023 and 7.79% in the year-ago period. Retail inflation in April has turned out to be the lowest since October 2021 when it was at 4.48%.

According to the National Statistical Office, the inflation in the food basket was 3.84% in April, as against 4.79% in March and 8.31% in the year-ago period.

Meanwhile, RBI projected the CPI inflation at 5.2% for FY2023-24, with 5.1% in Q1, 5.4% in Q2, 5.4% in Q3, and 5.2% in Q4, and risks evenly balanced, added the PTI report.

Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, of Millwood Kane International said, ""The CPI inflation at 4.7% is a big positive. After rising to levels of 6% and 7% for months, we finally witnessed a softness in retail inflation. We see a trend of softness in inflation with it being at 5% for March month and below the 5% mark for April. This was primarily due to a higher base and softness in food and core inflation."

On the other hand, the industrial production slowing down is a cause of concern. The IIP stood way below the street expectation at 1.1%, electricity demand dipping is a big negative, especially in the summer months, added Nish Bhatt.