Stock Market Outlook: Sensex, Nifty Expected to Trade Flat to Negative As GST Impact Fades & Profit Booking Up

The Indian stock market ended marginally higher on Thursday, September 4, with both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex managing to close in the green despite giving up most of their early gains. The market opened strong, supported by positive global cues and enthusiasm around recent GST reforms, but investor sentiment remained mixed as the day progressed.

Stock Market Outlook Today for September 5, 2025

The Nifty 50 index closed at 24,734.30, rising just 0.08% by the end of the session. Although it touched an intraday high near 24,900 earlier in the day, profit booking and weakness in heavyweights pulled it back. Out of the 50 constituent stocks, 31 declined while only 19 advanced, reflecting a cautious mood in the market.

M&M led the gains with a 5.95% jump, while Bajaj Finance and Apollo Hospitals also supported the index. However, losses in Reliance and Infosys capped the upside.

Sensex, Nifty Prediction Today: Technical Indicators Suggest Consolidation Phase; Key Levels to Watch

Nifty appears to be forming a sideways consolidation pattern near its 100-day moving average, according to market analysts. The index remains trapped within a narrow trading range of 500-600 points. Resistance is expected at 25,000 to 25,100 levels, while support lies between 24,300 and 24,400. A breakout or breakdown from this zone may dictate near-term direction.

The BSE Sensex closed at 80,718.01, gaining 150.3 points or 0.19% after touching an intraday high of 81,456.67. M&M, Bajaj Finance, and HDFC Bank were key contributors to the index's positive close. However, the overall market breadth was negative with 19 of the 30 Sensex stocks ending lower.

Selling pressure in large-cap names like Reliance, Infosys, NTPC, Power Grid, and Maruti limited the gains and signaled investor caution ahead of global and domestic triggers.

The Nifty Bank index ended the day almost flat with a minor gain of 7.9 points, closing at 54,075.45. Although it started strong, the index lost momentum by mid-day, reflecting weakness in key components. Gains in HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and IDFC First Bank were offset by losses in Federal Bank and Canara Bank.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bank Nifty remained below 40, suggesting weak short-term momentum. The index continues to hold above its immediate support at 54,000, with further downside support at 53,463 and 53,084.

The Nifty Financial Services index rose by 121 points to end at 25,853.4, up 0.47% for the day. Bajaj Finance and ICICI General Insurance provided the bulk of the upside. However, the advance was uneven as 12 out of 20 stocks in the index closed in the red. HDFC Life and Power Finance Corporation emerged as notable laggards, indicating that investor confidence remained selective within the broader financial space.

Stocks Performance Sector-wise

Among the sectoral indices, Nifty Auto was the standout performer with a gain of 0.85%, supported by continued optimism in auto sales and festive demand outlook. FMCG, which initially gained, ended just 0.24% higher after giving up most of its intraday rise. While the GST reforms provided early momentum, sectors sensitive to consumption trends saw profit booking as concerns lingered about inflation and rate decisions.

GST Revamp Fails to Cheer Markets Amid Lack of Immediate Relief: Check Expert View

Mr Pranay Aggarwal, Director and CEO of Stoxkart said, "The GST revamp was expected to streamline compliance and boost market sentiment, but it failed to excite Dalal Street as investors found limited immediate relief for businesses. While structural changes may improve efficiency in the long run, the absence of significant tax rate cuts or sector-specific incentives meant muted short-term impact. Markets typically respond to measures that directly influence earnings visibility or consumption demand. As these were largely unchanged, the Street remained cautious. Overall, the move is seen as an administrative improvement rather than a near-term catalyst."

F&O Expiry Caps Gains Amid Mixed Global Cues and Domestic Triggers

The expiry of Sensex F&O contracts also limited upside potential, even as consumption-heavy sectors like auto and financials offered some support. With global developments continuing to drive sentiment and the impact of GST reforms still being digested by the market, traders are advised to tread with caution heading into the weekend.

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