Falling Rupee Maybe Headed To Levels Of 78.50

The rupee hit its fresh all time low but in the last few sessions has been very resilient and is consolidating in a narrow range despite volatility in domestic and global equities and strength in the dollar against its major crosses. On the domestic front, RBI has been very actively intervening and curtailing the volatility for the rupee. Global crude oil prices have been rallying thereby putting pressure on inflation and leading to higher trade deficit.

"Dollar is getting support at lower levels ahead of US inflation number that will be released today and FOMC policy statement that is scheduled next week. Expectation is that the Fed could continue to raise rates and maintain its hawkish stance. We expect the USDINR (Spot) to trade with a positive bias and is gradually headed towards 78.50 levels. On the downside 77.20 will continue to act as an important support in the short term," Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.