India's Q1 FY 2022 GDP Rises To 20.1% On Low Base, No Surprises

India's first quarter GDP for the period from April 1 to June 30, 2021 came in at a solid 20.1% on the back of a low base of last year. The comparable year-ago period saw a nationwide lockdown and India faced a sharp contraction in the GDP, which came in at around -24.4% during those three months. The gross value added or more popularly know as GVA came in at 18.8% for the first quarter of FY 2022, again in line with estimates.

The numbers for the quarter ending June 30, 2021 is more or less in line with expectations. The Reserve Bank of India, had projected the first quarter GDP around 20.4%. The country's central bank which has adopted a lose monetary stance, has forecast annual growth of 9.5% in the current fiscal year.

It must be noted that with a view to contain the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, localized and calibrated lockdowns were imposed during the first quarter of 2021-22.

Restrictions were imposed on the economic activities not deemed essential, as also on the movement of people. The lockdown instructions in various States were duly considered by the National Statistical Office. The impact on economic activities and the data collection mechanisms owing to COVID-19 pandemic has an effect on the Quarterly GDP estimates also.

GDP is derived as the sum of the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices, plus all taxes on products, less all subsidies on products. The total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes Non-GST Revenue and GST Revenue.

Meanwhile, Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday said the economic activity in India is picking up with the gradual easing of COVID restrictions and there could be further upside to growth as economies around the world gradually reopen.

GDP growth in the current fiscal was estimated to be in double digits initially, but a severe second wave of the pandemic has led to various agencies cut growth projections. Moody's had in June projected a 9.3 per cent growth for the current fiscal ending March 2022.