India to Keep Importing Russian Oil Despite Waiver Expiry Amid Crude Crisis; US Allows Cargoes Already at Sea

India will continue purchasing crude oil from Russia even after the expiry of a temporary United States sanctions waiver. While the waiver formally ended on May 16, Washington has allowed a limited extension for Russian oil cargoes that were already at sea, ensuring that shipments currently in transit can still be delivered to Indian refiners without disruption.

Even so, Indian officials have made it clear that the continuation of imports does not depend on US permissions and that procurement decisions will remain based on price, availability and overall supply conditions.

India to Continue Buying Russian Oil After US Waiver Expiry

As per news reports, Sujata Sharma, a senior official in India's Petroleum Ministry, said Russian oil imports had continued uninterrupted before, during and after the waiver period. She emphasised that India's crude sourcing decisions are based on price, availability and broader market conditions, adding that global supplies remain adequate and that the end of the waiver would not disrupt procurement plans.

"Regarding the American waiver on Russia, I would like to emphasise that we have been purchasing from Russia earlier, before waiver also, during waiver also, and now also," Sharma said. "It is basically the commercial sense which should be there for us to purchase. There is no shortage of crude. Whatever waiver or no waiver, it will not affect."

The remarks came after a temporary sanctions waiver granted by the US Treasury Department expired on May 16, 2026. The waiver, first introduced in March and later extended twice, had permitted Russian seaborne crude exports to India despite broader Western restrictions.

Bloomberg L.P. reported that the measure was originally designed to stabilise global energy markets after the Iran war led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting tanker traffic and tightening oil supplies. India had sought another extension, but Washington declined to renew the arrangement.

Russian Oil Imports Surge Ahead of Deadline

Import data suggest Indian refiners accelerated purchases before the waiver lapsed. According to Kpler, Russian crude shipments to India averaged about 2.3 million barrels per day during the first half of May, the highest daily level ever recorded.

Refiners rushed to secure cargoes before the May 16 deadline. Kpler estimates that full-month imports are likely to average around 1.9 million barrels per day, close to earlier highs, according to Reuters.

Middle East Supply Disruptions Strengthen Russia's Role

India, one of the world's largest oil consumers, has increased its reliance on Russian crude as conflict involving Iran disrupted supplies from the Middle East.

Between February and March, crude imports from the Middle East dropped 61% to 1.18 million barrels per day. Over the same period, Russian shipments nearly doubled to 2.25 million barrels per day, allowing Indian refiners to replace lost Iranian and Gulf volumes with discounted Russian grades.

Analysts quoted by The Independent noted that pricing dynamics have also shifted. While Russian crude was initially sold to India at substantial discounts, tight global supplies during the Iran conflict reportedly pushed those barrels to a premium, boosting Moscow's oil revenues.

Russia has remained India's largest crude supplier since 2022, when Western sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine prompted Russian exporters to offer steep discounts to willing buyers.

How Indian Refiners Navigated Sanctions

Although the US and Europe imposed extensive restrictions on Russia, the sanctions did not directly prohibit purchases of Russian crude oil. Indian refiners continued to import oil by relying on non-sanctioned traders, vessels, insurers and payment systems that complied with Western rules.

This approach enabled India to secure competitively priced crude while staying within the formal framework of international sanctions.

The conflict involving Iran has significantly altered the global energy landscape. Kpler estimates that cumulative crude and condensate supply losses from the Middle East reached 782 million barrels by May 8 and could climb to one billion barrels later this month.

Production shutdowns across the region have stabilised near 12.5 million barrels per day, while a US blockade has sharply curtailed Iran's exports and forced a reduction in domestic output.

Iran has been storing unsold crude on tankers anchored in the Gulf, but Kpler warns that available floating storage capacity is nearly exhausted. As a result, additional production cuts may be required in the weeks ahead.

Meanwhile, global onshore crude inventories have fallen by around 60 million barrels since late March to approximately 3 billion barrels, equivalent to an average drawdown of roughly 2 million barrels per day.

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