Indian Monsoon At Risk: Study Shows El Niño Could Intensify Extreme Weather Conditions

Scientists have warned that India could face more extreme weather conditions in the coming years, driven by changes in global climate systems.

In a recent study, researchers at the Duke University Nicholas School of the Environment found that variations in ocean salinity may play a key role in determining the strength of an El Niño event, a natural climate pattern marked by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. While temperature changes have long been considered the main driver of this phenomenon, the new findings suggest that salt levels in the ocean may be an equally important factor.

According to the findings, published in Geophysical Research Letters, certain salt distribution patterns in the Pacific Ocean can increase the intensity of El Niño by nearly 20 per cent and potentially double the chances of an extreme event. The researchers observed that during spring, when fresher water sits along the equator in the western Pacific and saltier water lies farther away, this contrast helps push warm surface water eastward, a process that directly triggers and strengthens El Niño conditions.

For the study, scientists analysed 65 years of ocean observations along with advanced climate models. They found that incorporating ocean salinity into forecasting systems could significantly improve early warning mechanisms worldwide. Better prediction tools could help governments prepare for heatwaves, water shortages and crop losses in advance.

How Does El Niño Affect Indian Weather?

Typically occurring every two to seven years, El Niño develops when unusually warm waters build up in the eastern Pacific. This warming disrupts global wind systems and alters rainfall patterns across continents. For India, this often means moisture-laden clouds are pulled away from South Asia, weakening the monsoon and increasing the likelihood of dry conditions.

India is already witnessing more frequent dry summers and prolonged heatwaves. Erratic rainfall patterns further intensify water shortages and put pressure on the agriculture sector, particularly in rain-fed regions. A weak monsoon not only affects crop output but can also have ripple effects on rural incomes and food supply chains.

Historically, nearly half of all El Niño years have resulted in below-normal monsoon rainfall across India. In particularly strong El Niño years, there is about a 60 percent chance of drought conditions in some parts of the country.

For instance, the 2023 El Niño, one of the five strongest on record, led to India's driest August since 2018. This resulted in food grain shortages and a rise in food prices, highlighting how climate events can quickly translate into economic stress.

With climate models now indicating early signs of a possible El Niño developing in the second half of 2026, scientists warn that the risks of extreme weather, including heatwaves, erratic rainfall, and drought conditions, could rise significantly. Improved forecasting and preparedness may therefore become crucial in reducing the long-term impact on both livelihoods and the economy.