Q1 Result Review: Tata Steel, Vedanta, Hindalco, SAIL, JSW Steel Post Mixed Show; Check Latest Target Price

Q1 Result Review: The metal sector companies exhibited a mixed performance in the June quarter of the 2025-26 financial year. Ferrous names like Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, JSW Steel, delivered an upbeat Q1FY26 result, but non-ferrous firms like Vedanta, Hindustan Zinc, and Nalco reported soft earnings.

Better steel prices supported the topline and profitability growth for steel companies in the Q1 quarter. Factors like disciplined cost control, robust domestic demand and operating leverage helped margin expansion of multiple firms, according to Systematix Institutional Equities report.

Several steel sector companies delivered strong growth with a regular surge in their incremental capacity, supported by expansion projects. Additionally, domestic demand also absorbed the steel volumes.

Company	Rating Emkay TP (Rs)		Systematix Rating	Systematix TP	Axis Securities Rating	Axis Securties TP
Hindalco	REDUCE	650	HOLD	727	BUY	770
Vedanta	BUY	525	BUY	510
National Aluminium Co	BUY	210	HOLD	206	BUY	220
Tata Steel	BUY	185	BUY	181	Hold
JSW Steel	ADD	1050	BUY	1187
Jindal Steel	REDUCE	900
SAIL	BUY	155	HOLD	114	Hold
Coal India	ADD	425	HOLD	371	HOLD
Gravita India	BUY	2300

Vedanta Q1 Review

Vedanta reported mixed performance in the Q1 quarter in FY26. The metal to mining conglomerate reported an EBITDAQ of Rs 107.5 billion, which is around 6% ahead of the consensus expectations, and 1.9% of Emkay's expectations. The brokerage gave a 'Buy' rating for the stock with a target price of Rs 525 per share.

In a differing opinion, Systematix Institutional, stated that Vedanta reported "below expectations earnings" and maintained "Buy" rating for the stock. "Vedanta (VEDL BUY) posted below expectation earnings this quarter primarily due to weaker commodity prices of aluminium, zinc, and crude oil."

Tata Steel Q1 Review

Tata Steel reported an upbeat performance in the quarter, supported by its European business. The company reported flat earnings in the India segment.

"TATA reported consolidated adj EBITDA of Rs74.6bn, ahead of expectations (up 5.1% vs Emkay estimate; 8.7% vs consensus; 14.7% QoQ), led by cost takeout (Rs29bn), higher realisations, although partially offset by lower volumes across regions," noted Emkay. The brokerage maintained a target price of Rs 185 with a 'Buy' target.

"Tata Steel reported a strong set of numbers with EBITDA across geographies, beating ours and consensus estimates. India EBITDA/t stood at Rs 15,240/t a growth of 12%/20% YoY/QoQ, 17% ahead of our estimate. EBITDA/t in Europe turned positive after 10 quarters at $8/t from a loss of $36/t in Q4FY25. Higher steel price realisation and low coking coal consumption cost supported the margins, aided by the cost transformation program," noted Axis Securities.

Hindalco Q1 Review

Among all the metal sector companies, Hindalco stood out with its strong performance, despite Novelis's weak result in the quarter. The Aditya Birla Group's profit was driven by improvement in its cost at its India business, noted Emkay Research.

"Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability. Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,232 Cr (up 13% but down 1% QoQ), in line with our estimate. EBITDA stood at Rs 8,075 Cr (up 6% YoY, but down 16% QoQ), a 10% beat vs. our estimate and 3% ahead of consensus, led by strong Aluminium performance," noted Axis Securities.

SAIL

Steek Authority of India Limited (SAIL) missed the earning estimate by experts as inventory valuation loss, lower coking coal price, dragged the PSU's Q1 profit, according to Emkay. However, the company may see improvement in coming quarters as it is "intensifying efforts to modernize and debottleneck operations while shifting towards a higher share of finished products," stated Systematix Institutional Equities.

"SAIL's miss was led by a true-up exercise on the valuation of finished and in-process steel stocks, as lower imported coking coal prices led to lower production costs in Q1FY26. It took a one-time true-up impact of Rs 950 Cr QoQ (Rs 1,050 Cr YoY) on this inventory in NSRs (Net sales realisation). This stock (inventory) valuation impact offset the gain of ~Rs 700 Cr QoQ in NSR led by the improvement in steel prices," noted Axis Securities.

While Emkay retained a 'Buy' rating for the stock, Axis Securities and Systematix gave a "Hold" rating to the stock.

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