Q3 Result Preview | Metals, Mining: Vedanta, Nalco to Shine; Tata Steel, JSW to Outperform, Check Target Price

Q3 Results Preview, Metals and Mining: Vedanta and National Aluminium Company (NALCO) are expected to deliver a strong third-quarter performance, supported by higher aluminium and zinc prices. Tata Steel and JSW Steel are likely to outperform within the metals and mining space during the third quarter of FY2025-26, according to market experts.

Companies such as Steel Authority of India (SAIL) may see pressure on profitability due to a decline in steel prices during the quarter. While PL Capital expects a mixed performance across the metals and mining sector, Systematix Institutional Equities anticipates a strong set of earnings from companies in the metals, mining and steel pipes segments in 3QFY26.

Metals And Mining's Q3 Results Preview

A surge in commodity prices is likely to benefit non-ferrous companies under coverage. It is estimated to post 16%/19%/33% YoY growth in revenue/EBITDA/PAT, according to Systematix.

In the primary steel category, ferrous companies are likely to experience a weaker-than-expected quarter, characterised by margin contraction due to lower steel prices on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

A host of factors like structural tailwinds-safeguard-duty protection, pricing discipline, strengthening aluminium cycle, are likely to impact the steel sector's earnings in the financial year 2026-27.

Q3 Results Review: Non-Ferrous Companies To Benefit From Higher LME

Surge in commodity prices will benefit non-ferrous companies, with most of them expected to post around 16%/19%/33% YoY growth, stated Systematix in its report for companies under its coverage.

"Vedanta (VEDL) and Hindustan Zinc (HZ) are likely to see higher profitability growth and margin expansion, while impact of fire at Novelis NY plant would spill over in 3QFY26, moderating Hindalco's (HNDL) growth despite commodity price tailwinds. National Aluminium Company Ltd (NACL) is likely to register weaker YoY growth due to high base established in 3QFY25," stated the brokerage in its report.

"Non-ferrous earnings should remain healthy, led by aluminium and zinc price gains, supporting strong performance at VEDL and NACL, while HNDL should see a special quarter owing to lingering Novelis headwinds," stated Emkay in its report.

Q3 Result Preview: Ferrous Companies To Stay Under Pressure

Ferrous companies' earnings are likely to remain under pressure from weaker realisations and higher coking-coal costs, which will also drive sequential EBITDA declines, noted Emkay.

However, volume growth is likely to keep the growth intact with a 231bps YoY EBITDA margin expansion, as highlighted Systematix. However, companies like Tata Steel are likely to outperform in the segment.

"We expect strong performance from Tata Steel (TATA) as domestic demand was strong, and dispatches grew in double digits. Lower HRC prices at TSN and weak volumes at TSUK have weighed on overall EBITDA at TSE," stated PL Capital in its report.

Q3 Results Preview: Tata Steel, Vedanta, Hindalco, JSW Steel, Sail | Target Price

Metal, Mining Stock	PL Capital		Emkay Global
	Recomm.	TP	Recomm.	TP
Tata Steel	Accumulate	188	Buy	200
JSW Steel	Hold	1118	Add	1300
Jindal Steel	-	-	Add	1125
SAIL	Hold	143	Buy	175
Hindalco	Accumulate	846	Buy	1050
Vedanta	-	-	Buy	700
Nalco	Buy	281	Buy	390
Coal India	-	-	Add	450
Gravita India	-	-	Buy	2400

Tata Steel Q3 Results 2026 Preview

Domestic demand and dispatch growth are likely to improve Tata Steel's performance in the quarter. Higher volumes at Indian operations and narrowing losses at Tata Steel Nederland (TSN) is likely to drive 380 bps YoY margin expansion, noted Systematix.
For Tata Steel India Operations, PL Capital expects a 3% QoQ decline in revenue on a sequential basis. However, volumes will grow 14% on a year-on-year basis.

"We expect the company to report Q3 EBITDA of Rs77.2bn, down 15.3% QoQ, driven by a Rs1,800-2,000/t decline in NSRs and a USD5-6/t increase in coking-coal costs, partly offset by a 4.3% QoQ rise in volumes," stated Emkay Research.

Vedanta Q3 Results 2026 Preview

The metal-to-mining conglomerate is slated for a strong quarter led by higher volumes and base metal prices from top contributing segments, as per the Systematix report.
The brokerage noted that strong performance in the aluminium, zinc and power segments is expected to offset the weaker showing in the oil and gas business, while emphasising the need to closely track demerger updates, expansion plans and commissioning timelines.

"We expect VEDL to report stronger Q3FY26 results, with EBITDA of Rs149.4bn (up 28.7% QoQ and 32.4% YoY). The improved performance is likely to be driven by a sequentially strong performance in the company's aluminium segment and continued robust performance from Zinc India, with EBITDA generation of Rs49.2bn and Rs44.1bn, respectively, driven by higher average aluminium, zinc, and silver prices in Q3FY26, up 8.1%/11.7%/40.3% QoQ," stated Emkay in its report.

Hindalco Q3 Result Preview

Higher ally prices to aid Hindalco growth. Whereas, Novelis volumes are expected to decline on a sequential basis due to a seasonally weak quarter, noted PL Capital.
"At a consolidated level, we expect HNDL to report sequentially lower adj EBITDA of Rs79.2bn (vs Rs89.7bn in Q2FY26), driven by weaker Novelis EBITDA, ~1% cost inflation in the India business, and lower specialty alumina realizations, partly offset by a higher export mix and stronger aluminium realizations (+8.1% QoQ)," read Emkay Research report.

"Volume growth at India operations and higher base metal prices to drive consolidated performance during the quarter, helping offset weaker spreads and volumes at Novelis due to tariffs and the impact of fire at NY plant," stated Systematix.

JSW Steel Q3 Result Review

"We expect JSTL to report Q3 consolidated EBITDA of Rs63.0bn (down 11.4% QoQ, up 13.0% YoY), driven by lower realizations and higher coking-coal costs, leading to a ~Rs1,300/t QoQ contraction in EBITDA spreads. Volumes are likely to remain flat, with the BF-3 shutdown at Vijaynagar offset by the JVML ramp-up," stated Emkay Research in its report.

SAIL Q3 Result Review

SAIL is expected to witness a margin contraction led by fall in steel prices during the quarter, according to PL Capital and Systematix. However, the company may deliver sequentially higher sales volumes, argues Emkay Research.

"We expect SAIL to deliver sequentially higher sales volumes of 5.3mt (up 7.9% QoQ and 10.4% YoY). However, we estimate Q3 EBITDA at Rs24.9bn, implying a 12.1% QoQ decline, driven by weaker realizations and elevated coking coal costs. As a result, EBITDA/t is likely to compress by ~Rs1,000 QoQ to Rs4,130 in Q3, compared with Rs5,140 in Q2," noted Emkay.