RBI Set To Announce Monetary Policy Tomorrow, Mixed Opinion About Repo Rate Hike

Tomorrow the Central bank of India, RBI is going to announce its monetary policy committee report, all eyes will be on it. RBI is having its three-day meeting from June 6-8. Many investors are expecting that RBI might hike its repo rate again. Recently, in an off-cycle policy review, RBI has raised its repo rate by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40%, on May 4. Consistent rise in the inflation rate and falling demands have triggered the central bank to take this step.

The consumer price inflation reached nearly an 8-year high range of 7.79% in April. On the other hand, wholesale inflation reached a record high range of 15.1% in the same month. So, price stability for the common citizens is the major focus. The government is also taking measures to keep the crude oil prices, and LPG prices under control. The union government recently reduced fuel prices, raised its export duty hikes on some steel products, along with reducing customs duty for coking coal, etc.

However, many analysts are also thinking that RBI might not initiate another rate hike within this short span. The country has reported an 8.7% GDP growth in FY 2022, which has been an optimistic factor. However, its Q4FY22 GDP growth has marginally fallen than Q3FY22. So, analysts are having a mixed bag of opinions. It can take either a 'neutral' or 'accommodative' stance. Significantly, enhancing the supply-chain, and manufacturing, along with controlling the inflation rate will only boost the demand side.

Commenting on that matter, Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group told the media, "There is little doubt that the RBI will further increase the repo rates in tomorrow's announcement of the monetary policy review. What remains to be seen is the quantum of increase. The rate hike could be anywhere between 25-50 BPS. If the hike is above 50 BPS, it may impact home-buyer sentiments, and thus residential sales. It is now inevitable that home loan interest rates will finally depart from the 'sweet spot' territory that they have been occupying over the last 2 years, and enter into the yellow alert zone of lower overall affordability. As long as they stay clear of the double-digit red zone that they saw during the global financial crisis in 2008, we expect housing demand to continue - albeit at a marginally lower pace."

Speaking about the housing sector, Puri added, "Even at the height of the GFC, housing demand did not entirely evaporate. In India today, housing demand is driven by genuine end-user sentiment - the desire to own homes remains strong and will largely withstand marginal fluctuations in lending rates."