Sensex, Nifty's Bloody October: Rs 29.63 Lakh Cr Wealth Eroded In 22 Sessions; First Big Fall Of FY25; Outlook

Stock Market 2024: As much as Rs 29.63 lakh crore of investors' wealth has been eroded in October, making it the first monthly fall and worst of 2024. Both Sensex and Nifty have nosedived by approximately 6% each, also making it the worst-hit month since March 2020. There were a total of 22 sessions in October 2024 excluding weekend and special holidays.

On October 31, 2024, Sensex tumbled by 553.12 points or 0.69% to close at 79,389.06. After the market hours of Thursday, BSE-listed companies' market cap stood at over Rs 444.71 lakh crore.

The closing m-cap of October 2024, is lower by nearly Rs 29.64 lakh crore compared to the market cap of Rs 474.35 lakh crore in September 2024. The latest decline makes it the first erosion of FY25.

In September 2024, BSE-listed companies had surged by Rs 9.95 lakh crore on a month-on-month basis to Rs 474.35 lakh crore. While in August the gains were about nearly Rs 2.02 lakh crore to Rs 464.40 lakh crore.

Further, the market cap surged by Rs 23.13 lakh crore in July to Rs 462.38 lakh crore, making it the second-best monthly performance of FY25. During this month, Lok Sabha election outcomes with BJP win, followed by Union Budget FY25 were key driving factors.

Meanwhile, in June, the market cap had soared by nearly Rs 27.12 lakh crore to Rs 439.25 lakh crore. Elections and trajectory of global rate cuts were some of the key factors in this month. M-cap in June is also the best performing of FY25.

Additionally, m-cap also rose by Rs 5.57 lakh crore in May, to Rs 412.13 lakh crore, despite the monthly performance being down by 0.7%. In April, m-cap climbed by Rs 19.59 lakh crore to Rs 406.56 lakh crore, making it the third-best performing month of FY25.

BSE Listed Companies Market Cap In FY25	(Rs Crore)
October 2024	4,44,71,429.92
September 2024	4,74,35,137.15
August 2024	4,64,39,993.77
July 2024	4,62,38,008.35
June 2024	4,39,24,743.63
May 2024	4,12,12,881.14
April 2024	4,06,55,851.94
(Source: BSE)

BSE-listed companies' market cap ended at Rs 386.97 lakh crore by the end of March 2024.

In percentage terms, the Sensex dipped by 4,910.72 points or 5.83%. While Sensex plunged by 6,589.19 points or 7.7% from its all-time high of 85,978.25 which was recorded on September 27, 2024.

While Nifty 50 closed at 24,205.35, down by 135.50 points or 0.56% on October 31, while its monthly performance was down by 1,605.50 points or 6.22%.

Record selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) is some of the big reasons for the bearish trend in Sensex and Nifty. In October 2024, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulled out a record Rs 1,14, 445.89 crore from the Indian stock market. The FII selloff is higher compared to the buying of RS 1,07,254.68 crore by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) in the month.

As of October 31, 2024, there are a total of 4,026 stocks traded on BSE, and about 19,63,78,967 investors are registered. In USD terms, the BSE market cap is around $5.29 trillion.

What's ahead?

According to Trading Economics, the Sensex shed nearly 6% in October, marking its worst performance since March 2020, impacted by record foreign outflows and weak corporate earnings. The Indian stock market will be closed for a holiday tomorrow for Diwali 2024. However, the special customary one-hour Muhurat Trading session will happen from 6:00 PM to 7:00 PM.

For the upcoming days, Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said, "FIIs continued their selling streak, having crossed 1 lakh crore mark. Nifty after four weeks of decline, took support at lower levels in the Diwali week and consolidated in a range. We expect this range-bound move to continue with an increase in volatility as we enter an eventful week. Investor's focus would remain on the ongoing result season as several index heavy-weights like Titan, Dr Reddy's, Tata Steel, Power Grid, Apollo Hospital, M&M, Trent, SBI, Tata Motors, Asian Paint, Divis Labs are set to announce their quarterly results next week. Globally, US presidential polls to be conducted on November 5th, followed by US Fed and BOE interest rate decisions would keep the investors busy."

Meanwhile, Shrikant Chouhan, Head-Equity Research, Kotak Securities believes that the intraday market texture is weak but currently market is trading near important support level of 24200/79350.

Chouhan said, "If it succeeds to trade above the same then we could see a sharp technical bounce back till 24300/79700. Further upside may also continue which could lift the market till 24400/80000. On the flip side, below 24200/79350 it could slip till 24100-24050/79000-78800."