Stock Market Outlook Today, 26 February 2026: Sensex, Nifty Likely to Trade Range-Bound as Investors Eye GDP

Indian equity markets are expected to trade with caution and heightened volatility on Thursday, February 26, 2026, as investors weigh mixed global cues, geopolitical developments and key domestic data triggers after benchmark indices ended the previous session on a flat-to-positive note.

Stock Market Outlook for February 26, 2026: Sensex, Nifty Likely to Stay Range-Bound

On February 25, marking the start of the March derivatives series, the benchmarks witnessed sharp intraday swings before settling marginally higher. The Nifty opened with a gap-up and climbed to an intraday high of 25,653, but selling pressure at higher levels erased most of the gains, leading to a complete gap-fill.

The Sensex closed up 50.15 points, or 0.06 percent, at 82,276.07, while the Nifty added 57.85 points, or 0.23 percent, to finish at 25,482.50, still below the 25,500 mark.

GDP Data, Global Cues to Drive Market Mood Today

Looking ahead, market participants are likely to remain cautious as global developments take centre stage. Geopolitical tensions involving the United States (US) and Iran, along with ongoing news flow related to artificial intelligence (AI) and global tariff policies, are expected to influence near-term sentiment and trading direction.

"Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor the release of India's new GDP series scheduled for Friday, which could provide further clarity on domestic growth momentum. Overall, while the undertone remains cautious with selective sectoral participation, markets are likely to continue trading within a broader range in the near term, guided by macro developments and sector-specific catalysts," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

His comments suggest that while downside may be limited, strong upside triggers are also currently lacking, keeping markets range-bound.

Stocks in Focus Today: Sectoral Performance Shows Selective Buying

Sectorally, auto, healthcare, IT, metal and pharma stocks outperformed in the previous session, rising between 1 and 2 percent, reflecting selective risk-taking by investors. On the other hand, FMCG, PSU Bank, Realty and Infrastructure indices saw mild profit booking, slipping 0.19-0.40 percent.

The broader market showed relative strength, with the Nifty Midcap index gaining 0.58 percent and the Smallcap index advancing 1 percent, indicating continued interest in select non-index names.

Nifty Prediction Today, 26 February 2026

Technical analysts at Bajaj Broking Research noted that the Nifty continues to consolidate within a defined range.

"The index has formed a high wave candle with a small real body and long shadows in either direction, which mostly remained contained inside the previous session's price range, signaling consolidation amid stock-specific action. Nifty reacted lower from the immediate resistance area of 25,650, and only a move above this level will signal a pause in the current corrective trend."

They added that the index has been consolidating between 25,350 and 25,900 for the last nine sessions. A decisive breakout or breakdown from this band is likely to determine the next directional move. A breach below the 25,327 level could open downside towards the 200-day EMA and the gap area around 25,100-25,200, while resistance remains near 25,650.

Bank Nifty Outlook Today: Positive Bias, Buy on Dips

For Bank Nifty, the outlook remains relatively constructive despite near-term consolidation.

"Bank Nifty formed a small bearish candle with a small real body and shadows in either direction, signaling consolidation amid stock-specific action. Bias remains positive and we believe dips should be used as buying opportunities, with short-term support seen at 60,500-60,200 levels," Bajaj Broking Research said.

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