Stock Market Outlook Today: Sensex, Nifty Likely To Consolidate Ahead of RBI Policy Decision & US Trade Talks

Indian equity markets are expected to trade cautiously on December 3, with the Sensex and Nifty likely to remain under pressure near key support levels. After a weak close on December 2, profit booking, a softening rupee, and continued FII outflows are likely to keep investor sentiment subdued. Market participants will also closely watch the RBI monetary policy outcome and developments in US-India trade talks, which could influence short-term direction.

Stock Market Outlook Today, 3 December 2025 Amid RBI Monetary Policy Meeting

The stock market ended lower on December 2, with the Nifty50 slipping below the 26,050 level amid a weak broader sentiment. Adding to the pressure, the NSE's sectoral index reshuffle under SEBI norms weighed on major banking stocks, contributing to the decline.

At the close, the Sensex fell 503.63 points or 0.59% to 85,138.27, while the Nifty50 dropped 143.55 points or 0.55% to 26,032.20. All sectoral indices finished in the red, with metals, oil & gas, private banks, consumer durables, and media each declining around 0.5%. Among broader indices, the Midcap index closed marginally lower by 0.22%, while the Small-cap index fell 0.55%.

Sensex, Nifty Prediction Today: Cautious Sentiment Ahead of RBI MPC Meeting December 2025 and US-India Trade Talks

Market participants remain cautious amid dampened hopes of an RBI rate cut following robust GDP growth figures and lingering uncertainty over US-India trade negotiations. Analysts suggest that while the broader trend remains positive, near-term consolidation is likely before a potential upward move resumes.

According to Bajaj Broking Research, the Nifty50 has formed a bearish candle with a lower high and lower low, signaling the continuation of corrective consolidation on the weekly expiry session.

The brokerage noted, "Index after last four sessions of corrective consolidation is approaching the key support area of 26,000-25,800. We believe the current breather should be used to accumulate quality stocks for the next leg of up move towards 26,500 levels."

Bajaj Broking added that the two-month uptrend has remained well within a rising channel, indicating an overall positive bias.

Technical View from Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd, "Until the index persists below this level, any bounce should be used for profit booking. On the downside, 25,840 will act as crucial support base, where the short term swing low is placed. Considering the overall setup, traders are advised to buy near support levels and sell near the resistance mentioned above."

Bank Nifty Outlook: Consolidation Expected on 3 December 2025

The brokerage also provided insights on Bank Nifty, highlighting that the index has formed a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow, signaling the extension of corrective decline for a second consecutive session. "We expect the index to consolidate and form a base in the range of 58,500-60,100 in the coming sessions ahead of the RBI monetary policy outcome," Bajaj Broking said.

The report added that a break above last Monday's high of 60,114 could open further upside toward 60,400 and then 61,000 levels in the coming weeks. "The entire up move of the last 2 months is well channelled, signaling sustained demand at elevated levels. Key support is placed at 58,300-58,600 levels being the confluence of the last two weeks lows and recent breakout area. Holding above the support area will keep the short-term bias positive," the brokerage added.

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